It’s been drummed into you practically from the time you were in diapers: Be confident! The thing is, there’s a difference between confidence and overconfidence—and the latter can seriously backfire. For example, people often think they’re better at estimating than they really are—and the more overconfident the person, the less likely they are to adjust their estimations based on expert feedback, according to a new study.
For the study, researchers had 184 college students estimate the local high temperature on 24 random dates in the past. Each time they guessed within a certain range of the correct answer, their name was entered in a lottery to win a gift card. After completing the test, one-third of participants received accurate feedback about how well their answers matched up, one-third were told they performed worse than they actually did, and a third didn’t get any critique. The students then guessed the temps on a number of additional days. Those who didn’t receive feedback made the fewest adjustments, followed by those given accurate feedback. Given the fact that participants had minimal knowledge of the temperature on these days, this suggests they were overconfident. Only the people who were told their errors were off by 2.5 times as much as they actually were—the least confident people—actually modified their estimates an appropriate amount, say researchers.
“Overconfidence is robust,” says study author Albert Mannes, PhD, of The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “Previous research has found that nearly 80 percent of people believe they’re above average drivers. Overprecision—excessive certainty of one’s own knowledge—is also common. Exploring that effect was the motivation of our study.”
All right, but what’s so bad about overconfidence anyway? After all, isn’t thinking excessively highly of your abilities how people like Kim Kardashian and Mark Zuckerberg accomplished so much? “Overconfidence frequently leads people to cut things too close, which means you might arrive late, miss your plane, or bounce a check,” says Mannes. If you estimate it’ll take 15 minutes to get downtown and you don’t account for the possibility of hitting traffic or having trouble finding parking, you’ll be late for dinner—and could piss off your date. It can land you in a more serious mess, too. “For example, people might underestimate their chance of getting an STD,” says Mannes. “Telling yourself that you don’t engage in risky behavior often enough for it to be a danger can cause you to make an unwise decision.” Luckily, there are ways to circumvent this mental bias:
Ask for feedback
Mannes’ research proved how helpful critiques from others are to assessing where you actually stand. If you want a more accurate read of your job performance, make an appointment with your boss to go over a project and find out what worked, what didn’t, and how you can improve. Want to know what kind of impression you really make on guys? Ask a close friend to tell you honestly how you come across, or try online dating—the comments you receive can clue you into what men respond to and the kinds of men you’re attracting.
Give yourself extra time to complete big projects
“People tend to be overconfident about difficult tasks,” says Mannes, “whereas they predict that easy things will take longer to complete than they actually do.” When faced with a major undertaking, like a multi-step work assignment or planning your wedding, allow yourself extra leeway to get it all done.
Keep your optimism in check
Ironically, the less you understand about a certain situation, the likelier you are to be overconfident. “People forget to account for the margin of error between what they do and don’t know,” says Mannes. “Just like a political poll estimating the chances of a candidate winning includes a margin of error of a couple degrees, we should also consider the possibility of being wrong—but most people don’t.” To correct for that, he suggests brainstorming all the ways that you’re in the dark.
For instance, when applying for a job, many people focus on their positive qualities and overestimate their chances of getting hired. It makes sense because you’re clueless about the other candidates. They could have impressive degrees and experience, but since you don’t know anything about them, you instead zero in on what you are familiar with: namely, your awesomeness. A boost of confidence can definitely give you an edge during an interview, but it’s also smart to keep your expectations realistic so you won’t be too bummed if things don’t turn out how you’d hoped. After meeting with the hiring manager, spend a few minutes coming up with reasons why you might not get the gig to help balance out your assumptions.
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